moral certainty

Something is morally certain if its probability comes so close to complete certainty that the difference cannot be perceived. By contrast, something is morally impossible if it has only as much certainty as the amount by which moral certainty falls short of complete certainty. Thus if we take something that possesses 999⁄1000 of certainty to be morally certain, then something that has only 1⁄1000 of certainty will be morally impossible.

~ Jacob Bernoulli (1713) Ars Conjectandi